On file: 19 previous meetings dating to 2012, 34-15 on goals. Last time: 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-EGY. The present numbers are 1789 against 1537, and the model turns that into 77.7% / 16.9% / 5.4%.
On expected goals the model has it 1.46 against 0.66. Neither component contradicts the other: Zamalek SC leads 1.08-0.94 forward and 0.52-0.91 back. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +289 and +37. The distribution runs from 77.7% down to 5.4%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.08/0.52 and 0.94/0.91. Result on the day: 2-1. Top of the distribution: Zamalek SC, 77.7%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Expected shares 86.1% against 13.9% on Elo. Ratings sit 252 apart. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The leading outcome clears the second by 60.8 points. Win-or-lose totals 83.1%; the draw takes the rest. Point estimate: 1-0. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The ratings draw on 487 and 284 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Most weight falls on 1-0 at 17.6%.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Zamalek SC edged past Petrojet 2-1 at Cairo International Stadium, Cairo on 31 August 2026. H. Ashraf opened the scoring in the 40th minute for Zamalek SC, set up by C. Banza, to make it 1-0. M. El Sayed added to the tally 63 minutes into the game for Zamalek SC, set up by O. Dabbagh, to make it 2-0. B. Moussa pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 91st minute for Petrojet to make it 1-2. A. Hamed (18') and B. Moussa (43') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Zamalek SC at 77.7% in this pairing, and Zamalek SC won this one. Zamalek SC's current recorded form ends with 6 consecutive wins in Egyptian Premier League 2025/26, Egyptian Premier League 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.72 to 1.86.