Prior record: 2-6-2 across 10 since 2021. Most recent 2026, 1-3 in comp-apf-EGY. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1486 and 1671 — 185 points — for a 21.4% / 23.8% / 54.8% split.
Most likely single result is Ceramica Cleopatra on 54.8%. The match finished 1-3. Outcomes span 33.4 points. Behind them are 453 and 187 rated matches. Versus the 1500 seed: -14 and +171. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 16.9%, clear of 0-0 on 16.4%. In absolute terms: Al Ittihad 0.70/0.79, Ceramica Cleopatra 0.97/0.74 on attack and defence. By expected share of the points: 33.4% and 66.6%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model gives 76.2% to someone winning. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Ceramica Cleopatra is ahead on each half — 0.97 to 0.70 in attack, 0.74 to 0.79 in defence. The away side is rated higher. Expected goals sit at 0.78 against 1.03. Reduced to one result that is 0-1. Ceramica Cleopatra leads the distribution by 31.0 points over the draw. A 185-point spread sits between the two figures.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Ceramica Cleopatra beat Al Ittihad 3-1 on 28 August 2026. A. Belhadji opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Ceramica Cleopatra to make it 1-0. M. Otaka added to the tally 64 minutes into the game for Ceramica Cleopatra, set up by Bobo, to make it 2-0. H. Hassan pulled one back 77 minutes into the game for Al Ittihad, set up by N. Alaa, to make it 1-2. N. Gradisar added to the tally 79 minutes into the game for Ceramica Cleopatra, set up by Beckham, to make it 3-1. I. Mohamed (39'), S. Isaac (48') and M. Mostafa (67') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Ceramica Cleopatra 185 points stronger than Al Ittihad. Every goal came after the interval. Ceramica Cleopatra's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins.