18 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 30-24. The latest was 2025, 1-0 in comp-apf-EGY. The present numbers are 1603 against 1603, and the model turns that into 46.4% / 25.7% / 27.9%.
On the Elo curve they expect 59.2% and 40.8% of the points. The two ratings are identical to the point. 46.4% goes to Enppi, the model's lean. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Neither of them is rated higher. Played and finished 1-3. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +103 and +103. Wadi Degla holds both halves of the profile — 1.00 against 0.77 for scoring, 0.68 against 0.83 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A decisive result carries 74.3% against 25.7% for the draw. Most and least likely outcomes are 20.7 points apart. 0-1 is the single most probable result at 16.9%, clear of 0-0 on 15.0%. Goal expectation splits 0.77 to 1.13. Enppi sits 18.5 points above the next most likely result. Raw profiles are 0.77 and 0.83 against 1.00 and 0.68.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Wadi Degla beat Enppi 3-1 at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo on 28 August 2026. S. Teka opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Wadi Degla, set up by H. Hassan, to make it 1-0. Kahraba levelled it from the penalty spot inside the first 13 minutes for Enppi to make it 1-1. Wadi Degla regained the lead through H. Hassan from the penalty spot 62 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Zizo added to the tally late on, in the 82nd minute for Wadi Degla, set up by A. Mahmoud, to make it 3-1. M. Hamdi (2'), A. Refaat (31'), Riga (70') and S. Teka (75') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Wadi Degla only a 27.9% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.