The draw carries unusual weight here, 27.0% against 32.5% and 40.4%.
Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -40 and +53. Most and least likely outcomes are 13.4 points apart. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 24.5%. El Gouna FC holds both halves of the profile — 0.65 against 0.63 for scoring, 0.58 against 0.98 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Higher rating: the away side. El Gouna FC holds a 7.9-point edge on the next outcome. Final score: 1-1. Expected goals sit at 0.55 against 0.86. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Point estimate: 0-0. The model gives 72.9% to someone winning. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 46.0% to 54.0%. Behind them are 20 and 317 rated matches. Attack/defence pairs: 0.63/0.98 and 0.65/0.58. A 93-point difference on the rating scale. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Top of the distribution: El Gouna FC, 40.4%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Olympic El Qanah and El Gouna FC drew 1-1 at Suez Canal Stadium, Ismailia on 28 August 2026. M. Wayo opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Olympic El Qanah, set up by M. Hany, to make it 1-0. A. Gamal levelled it 47 minutes into the game for El Gouna FC, set up by A. Khaled, to make it 1-1. W. Parfait Teukeu (90') was sent off. O. El Gazar (46'), W. Parfait Teukeu (57'), M. Metawea (67') and W. Parfait Teukeu (90') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: El Gouna FC are 93 points stronger than Olympic El Qanah.