15 meetings sit in the record, first in 2016, aggregate 14-19. The latest was 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-EGY. History aside, the live ratings of 1517 and 1650 drive a 27.5% / 25.6% / 46.8% distribution.
The single-scoreline output is 0-0. The three results cover 21.2 points. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 270 and 430 rated matches respectively. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The four component numbers read 0.77, 0.74, 0.88, 0.83. Versus the 1500 seed: +17 and +150. The two ratings differ by 133 points. AL Masry holds a 19.3-point edge on the next outcome. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 40.3% to 59.7%. Higher rating: the away side. The tie closed out 2-3. 74.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Honours split: 0.88 forward for AL Masry, 0.74 back for El Mokawloon. Expected goals 0.94-0.89. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 16.1%. Most likely single result is AL Masry on 46.8%.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.