Prior record: 5-9-4 across 18 since 2011. Most recent 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-EGY. Currently 1537 against 1473 — a 55.9% / 23.5% / 20.6% split.
Final score: 2-3. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Higher rating: the home side. By expected share of the points: 67.8% and 32.2%. Its rounded call is 1-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 284 and 454 matches. Spread across the three results is 35.3 points. 55.9% goes to Petrojet, the model's lean. A 64-point spread sits between the two figures. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 20.0% — 0-0 is next at 19.9%. Someone wins 76.5% of the time by this model. One edge each: scoring to Petrojet (0.94 v 0.49), conceding to El Geish (0.72 v 0.91). Attack/defence pairs: 0.94/0.91 and 0.49/0.72. The leading outcome clears the second by 32.4 points. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +37 and -27. The xG line reads 1.01 to 0.61.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
El Geish edged past Petrojet 3-2 at Petrosport Stadium, Cairo on 26 August 2026. K. Tarek opened the scoring in the 19th minute for El Geish, set up by M. Atef, to make it 1-0. I. Mohareb added to the tally in the 43rd minute for El Geish, set up by M. Atef, to make it 2-0. M. Atef added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for El Geish, set up by I. Mohareb, to make it 3-0. G. Chika got one back 65 minutes into the game for Petrojet to make it 1-3. M. El Badry pulled one back late on, in the 81st minute for Petrojet, set up by A. Liadi, to make it 2-3. O. Radwan (69') was sent off. F. Hatem (11') and Y. Mostafa (48') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Petrojet slightly the stronger side, by 64 rating points over El Geish, even though it was El Geish who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives El Geish only a 20.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. On current ratings the model puts El Geish at around 0.61 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.72 to 0.23.