28 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 53-17. The latest was 2026, 3-0 in comp-apf-EGY. Currently 1850 against 1603 — a 77.2% / 17.1% / 5.7% split.
Expected goals sit at 1.50 against 0.65. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. Top of the distribution: Al Ahly, 77.2%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Ahly scores at the higher rate (1.21 to 0.77) and concedes at the lower (0.63 to 0.83). 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Win-or-lose totals 82.9%; the draw takes the rest. Al Ahly holds a 60.1-point edge on the next outcome. Between best and worst outcome there is 71.5 points of daylight. Both figures rest on decent samples, 526 and 446 matches. 247 points of rating separation. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 85.8% to 14.2%. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The match finished 3-2. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 17.5%, clear of 2-0 on 13.1%. In absolute terms: Al Ahly 1.21/0.63, Enppi 0.77/0.83 on attack and defence. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +350 and +103.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Al Ahly edged past Enppi 3-2 at Cairo International Stadium, Cairo on 23 August 2026. H. Ibrahim (77') was booked. On current ratings the model favours Al Ahly at 77.2% in this pairing, and Al Ahly won this one. Al Ahly are unbeaten in the latest 8 matches of their recorded form. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.51 to 0.92.