Across 24 recorded meetings back to 2011 the split is 8-9-7 in AL Masry's favour on wins, 25-21 on goals. The last was 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-EGY. The present numbers are 1650 against 1525, and the model turns that into 64.1% / 21.4% / 14.5%.
The distribution runs from 64.1% down to 14.5%. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither figure is thin: 430 and 449 matches respectively sit behind them. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-0. The match finished 1-0. The xG line reads 1.01 to 0.67. The home side is rated higher. By expected share of the points: 74.9% and 25.1%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.88/0.83 and 0.60/0.77. A 125-point spread sits between the two figures. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 18.8% — 0-0 is next at 18.6%. 64.1% goes to AL Masry, the model's lean. The gap between first and second outcome is 42.7 points, AL Masry ahead of the draw. Honours split: 0.88 forward for AL Masry, 0.77 back for Smouha SC. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +150 and +25.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
AL Masry edged past Smouha SC 1-0 on 22 August 2026. A. Mayhoub (an own goal) opened the scoring 76 minutes into the game for AL Masry to make it 1-0. H. Ali (46'), A. El Sisi (46'), M. Makhlouf (53'), M. Adel (77'), A. Deghmoum (80') and A. Amer (84') were booked. On current ratings the model favours AL Masry at 64.1% in this pairing, and AL Masry won this one. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.13 to 0.25.