Prior record: 0-3-1 across 4 since 2025. Most recent 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-DZA. The live ratings are 1617 and 1616, giving 46.6% / 25.7% / 27.8%.
The tie closed out 2-3. The ratings draw on 60 and 464 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Someone wins 74.4% of the time by this model. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The three results cover 20.9 points. Olympique Akbou carries the largest share, 46.6%. Olympique Akbou leads the distribution by 18.8 points over USM Alger. The rating gap itself is 1 points, which is narrow by the model's standards. In absolute terms: Olympique Akbou 0.74/0.74, USM Alger 0.86/0.83 on attack and defence. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +117 and +116. On expected goals the model has it 0.92 against 0.86. One half each — USM Alger in front on 0.86, Olympique Akbou behind on 0.74. On the Elo curve they expect 59.4% and 40.6% of the points. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 16.9%, with 1-0 behind it at 15.5%.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
USM Alger edged past Olympique Akbou 3-2 on 19 September 2026. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives USM Alger only a 27.8% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. On current ratings the model puts USM Alger at around 0.86 goals in this pairing; they scored 3 here. USM Alger are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form.