On record: 21 meetings from 2011, 21-15 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-DZA. The live ratings are 1568 and 1654, giving 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.3%.
The gap between first and second outcome is 5.9 points, MC Oran ahead of ASO Chlef. Most weight falls on 0-0 at 16.7%. 86 points of rating separation. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 333 and 454 matches. All three results are bunched inside 12.0 points. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Honours split: 0.91 forward for MC Oran, 0.81 back for ASO Chlef. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. On expected goals the model has it 0.79 against 0.99. Point estimate: 0-0. Elo expected shares: 47.0% and 53.0%. MC Oran carries the largest share, 39.3%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +68 and +154. Played and finished 0-1. Raw profiles are 0.63 and 0.81 against 0.91 and 0.85. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.