On file: 2 previous meetings dating to 2023, 3-2 on goals. Last time: 2024, 2-1 in comp-apf-DZA. Today those sides rate 1609 and 1455, 154 apart, which resolves to 67.8% / 20.3% / 11.9%.
67.8% goes to Ben Aknoun, the model's lean. Played and finished 2-2. Ben Aknoun sits 47.5 points above the next most likely result. With 60 and 214 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.07 to 0.29 says Ben Aknoun, 0.86 to 1.04 says US Biskra. Its point estimate is 1-0. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Outcomes span 55.9 points. On expected goals the model has it 1.37 against 0.40. The four component numbers read 1.07, 1.04, 0.29, 0.86. The home side is rated higher. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 23.3% — 0-0 is next at 17.1%. Expected shares 77.9% against 22.1% on Elo. Win-or-lose totals 79.7%; the draw takes the rest. Rating separation comes to 154 points. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +109 and -45.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Ben Aknoun and US Biskra drew 2-2 on 10 September 2026. A. Djabout opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for Ben Aknoun to make it 1-0. M. Belkhadem levelled it in the 19th minute for US Biskra to make it 1-1. Y. Saindou put US Biskra in front 50 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Ben Aknoun levelled it late on, in the 88th minute for Ben Aknoun to make it 2-2. A. Oukali (17'), A. Benamara (21') and M. Benchaira (34') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Ben Aknoun 154 points stronger than US Biskra. Ben Aknoun are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.