Across 18 recorded meetings back to 2017 the split is 5-8-5 from US Monastirienne's side on wins, 18-16 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-2 in comp-apf-TUN. Against that, current ratings read 1637 and 1525, a 112-point margin, and the model splits the tie 62.6% / 21.8% / 15.6%.
The distribution peaks at 0-0, 40.4%, with 1-0 behind it at 24.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: US Monastirienne leads 0.74-0.48 forward and 0.47-0.55 back. The model gives 78.2% to someone winning. Goal expectation splits 0.60 to 0.30. Its rounded call is 0-0. The higher rating belongs to the home side. The tie closed out 3-3. Versus the 1500 seed: +137 and +25. In absolute terms: US Monastirienne 0.74/0.47, US Ben Guerdane 0.48/0.55 on attack and defence. Rating separation comes to 112 points. US Monastirienne holds a 40.8-point edge on the next outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Top of the distribution: US Monastirienne, 62.6%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Behind them are 350 and 296 rated matches. Elo expected shares: 73.5% and 26.5%. A 47.0-point range top to bottom.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
US Monastirienne and US Ben Guerdane drew 3-3 at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet, Monastir on 12 September 2026. S. Barhoumi opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for US Monastirienne to make it 1-0. G. Ayadi levelled it in the 17th minute for US Ben Guerdane to make it 1-1. A. M'Ghezzi Bakhouche put US Ben Guerdane in front in the 45th minute to make it 2-1. US Ben Guerdane added to the tally 53 minutes into the game for US Ben Guerdane to make it 3-1. US Monastirienne pulled one back 60 minutes into the game for US Monastirienne to make it 2-3. US Monastirienne levelled it 64 minutes into the game for US Monastirienne to make it 3-3. (38'), (40'), (41') and (50') were booked. US Monastirienne are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form. US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form.