On file: 28 previous meetings dating to 2012, 30-16 on goals. Last time: 2026, 4-0 in comp-apf-TUN. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1758 and 1492 — 266 points — for a 78.9% / 16.4% / 4.7% split.
3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher-rated side expects 87.1% of the points; the other side 12.9%. The ratings draw on 406 and 391 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Of the individual scorelines, 1-0 carries the most weight at 30.0% — 0-0 is next at 25.0%. A 62.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Versus the 1500 seed: +258 and -8. The home side is rated higher. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.20 and 0.19. Most likely single result is CS Sfaxien on 78.9%. A 266-point difference on the rating scale. Raw profiles are 1.08 and 0.28 against 0.50 and 0.75. Neither component contradicts the other: CS Sfaxien leads 1.08-0.50 forward and 0.28-0.75 back. Rounded, that is 1-0. A decisive result carries 83.6% against 16.4% for the draw. The match finished 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 74.2 points apart.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
CS Sfaxien beat CA Bizertin 2-0 on 20 September 2026. J. Loulendo opened the scoring in the 35th minute for CS Sfaxien to make it 1-0. M. S. Mhadhebi added to the tally 66 minutes into the game for CS Sfaxien to make it 2-0. (31'), (31'), (41'), (48') and (85') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have CS Sfaxien 266 points stronger than CA Bizertin. On current ratings the model favours CS Sfaxien at 78.9% in this pairing, and CS Sfaxien won this one. CS Sfaxien are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form.