The head-to-head counts 16 recorded meetings since 2012: 5 to Club Africain, 3 to ES Zarzis, 8 drawn, 15-10 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-TUN. History aside, the live ratings of 1766 and 1569 drive a 72.5% / 18.8% / 8.7% distribution.
3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Ratings sit 197 apart. The underlying goal expectation is 1.00 for Club Africain, 0.29 for ES Zarzis. Higher rating: the home side. The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Club Africain's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 81.9%. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. With 402 and 239 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Most and least likely outcomes are 63.8 points apart. Club Africain sits 53.7 points above the next most likely result. Top of the distribution: Club Africain, 72.5%. Both components point the same way, toward Club Africain: 1.02 to 0.77 going forward, 0.28 to 0.66 going back. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 27.6%. Someone wins 81.2% of the time by this model. The four component numbers read 1.02, 0.28, 0.77, 0.66. The match finished 1-0. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +266 and +69.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Club Africain edged past ES Zarzis 1-0 on 20 September 2026. S. Kadida opened the scoring 57 minutes into the game for Club Africain to make it 1-0. S. Touj (23'), (40') and J. Belkilani (60') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Club Africain at 72.5% in this pairing, and Club Africain won this one. Club Africain are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2025/26, Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.