On record: 12 meetings from 2011, 7-14 on aggregate, 5 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-3 in comp-apf-TUN. History aside, the live ratings of 1569 and 1637 drive a 35.6% / 27.9% / 36.5% distribution.
Only 0.9 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. One half each — ES Zarzis in front on 0.77, US Monastirienne behind on 0.47. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 30.2%, clear of 0-1 on 20.0%. All three results are bunched inside 8.6 points. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The rating gap itself is 68 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. By expected share of the points: 49.6% and 50.4%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Attack/defence pairs: 0.77/0.66 and 0.74/0.47. Neither figure is thin: 239 and 350 matches respectively sit behind them. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.53 and 0.66. Result on the day: 1-2. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +69 and +137. Most likely single result is US Monastirienne on 36.5%.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
US Monastirienne edged past ES Zarzis 2-1 on 16 September 2026. A. Bouassida opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 20th minute for US Monastirienne to make it 1-0. A. Bouassida added to the tally 47 minutes into the game for US Monastirienne to make it 2-0. K. Kassab pulled one back from the penalty spot 52 minutes into the game for ES Zarzis to make it 1-2. H. Labidi (87') was sent off. (20'), (31'), (36'), (51'), (81') and (92') were booked. US Monastirienne are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.