On file: 6 previous meetings dating to 2021, 6-6 on goals. Last time: 2023, 1-2 in comp-apf-TUN. The present numbers are 1559 against 1467, and the model turns that into 59.8% / 22.5% / 17.6%.
The home side is rated higher. One edge each: scoring to ES Hammam-Sousse (0.70 v 0.53), conceding to ES Metlaoui (0.62 v 0.95). Rounded, that is 0-0. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The distribution runs from 59.8% down to 17.6%. The ratings draw on 348 and 88 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. First to second is a 37.3-point step, ES Metlaoui over the draw. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The xG line reads 0.75 to 0.58. Expected shares 71.2% against 28.8% on Elo. The model's preferred outcome is ES Metlaoui at 59.8%. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +59 and -33. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 26.3%, with 1-0 behind it at 19.8%. Someone wins 77.4% of the time by this model. A 92-point spread sits between the two figures. In absolute terms: ES Metlaoui 0.53/0.62, ES Hammam-Sousse 0.70/0.95 on attack and defence.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
ES Metlaoui edged past ES Hammam-Sousse 1-0 on 6 September 2026. M. Bouzaabya opened the scoring late on, in the 84th minute for ES Metlaoui to make it 1-0. (30'), (68'), (78') and (82') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: ES Metlaoui are 92 points stronger than ES Hammam-Sousse. On current ratings the model favours ES Metlaoui at 59.8% in this pairing, and ES Metlaoui won this one.