Prior record: 3-0-1 across 4 since 2024. Most recent 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-TUN. The present numbers are 1599 against 1487, and the model turns that into 62.5% / 21.8% / 15.7%.
Outcomes span 46.8 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Versus the 1500 seed: +99 and -13. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 19.8%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Behind them are 432 and 60 rated matches. Someone wins 78.2% of the time by this model. 62.5% goes to ES Sahel, the model's lean. Expected goals 0.94-0.67. Attack/defence pairs: 0.70/0.78 and 0.64/0.91. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The tie closed out 1-1. The higher-rated side expects 73.5% of the points; the other side 26.5%. ES Sahel leads the distribution by 40.7 points over the draw. ES Sahel is ahead on each half — 0.70 to 0.64 in attack, 0.78 to 0.91 in defence. The rating gap itself is 112 points, which is wide by the model's standards. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-0.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
ES Sahel and Jeunesse Sportive Omrane drew 1-1 on 6 September 2026. H. Kouki opened the scoring in the 36th minute for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane to make it 1-0. A. Ben Dhiaf levelled it 55 minutes into the game for ES Sahel to make it 1-1. (5') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have ES Sahel 112 points stronger than Jeunesse Sportive Omrane.