On record: 24 meetings from 2015, 7-30 on aggregate, 6 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-TUN. The live ratings are 1525 and 1758, giving 16.5% / 22.1% / 61.4%.
The xG line reads 0.20 to 0.80. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 296 and 406 rated matches respectively. Higher rating: the away side. CS Sfaxien carries the largest share, 61.4%. Someone wins 77.9% of the time by this model. Expected shares 27.5% against 72.5% on Elo. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +25 and +258. Neither component contradicts the other: CS Sfaxien leads 1.08-0.48 forward and 0.28-0.55 back. Attack/defence pairs: 0.48/0.55 and 1.08/0.28. A 39.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 36.8%, with 0-1 behind it at 29.6%. Point estimate: 0-0. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Most and least likely outcomes are 44.9 points apart. Final score: 1-1. Rating separation comes to 233 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
US Ben Guerdane and CS Sfaxien drew 1-1 on 16 September 2026. J. Loulendo opened the scoring in the 33rd minute for CS Sfaxien to make it 1-0. M. Camara levelled it 63 minutes into the game for US Ben Guerdane to make it 1-1. H. Ouedraogo (77') was sent off. T. El Islem (27'), G. Mounguide (48'), Y. Habchia (54'), (78'), (85') and (97') were booked. US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. CS Sfaxien are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form.