On record: 22 meetings from 2011, 19-12 on aggregate, 12 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-TUN. The present numbers are 1637 against 1618, and the model turns that into 49.4% / 25.0% / 25.6%.
3 scorelines clear 8% individually. On expected goals the model has it 0.49 against 0.38. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +137 and +118. Outcomes span 24.4 points. Its rounded call is 0-0. US Monastirienne holds a 23.8-point edge on the next outcome. Attack/defence pairs: 0.74/0.47 and 0.61/0.45. A decisive result carries 75.0% against 25.0% for the draw. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Played and finished 2-1. Each side owns one half of the argument — US Monastirienne the scoring rate at 0.74, Stade Tunisien the conceding rate at 0.45. US Monastirienne's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 61.9%. 49.4% goes to US Monastirienne, the model's lean. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 350 and 344 rated matches respectively. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 41.5%, clear of 1-0 on 20.5%.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
US Monastirienne edged past Stade Tunisien 2-1 at Stade Mustapha Ben Jannet, Monastir on 29 August 2026. Wael ouerghemmi opened the scoring in the 31st minute for Stade Tunisien to make it 1-0. Raed bouchniba levelled it in the 34th minute for US Monastirienne to make it 1-1. Salah Barhoumi put US Monastirienne in front 51 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Rayed Derbali (14'), (52'), (67') and (75') were booked. US Monastirienne are unbeaten in the latest 5 matches of their recorded form.