The head-to-head counts 16 recorded meetings since 2011: 3 to CS Hammam-Lif, 8 to CA Bizertin, 5 drawn, 10-23 on aggregate. Most recently 2022, 0-2 in comp-apf-TUN. History aside, the live ratings of 1418 and 1492 drive a 34.9% / 27.7% / 37.4% distribution.
Most weight falls on 0-0 at 30.6%. A 74-point spread sits between the two figures. Both figures rest on decent samples, 228 and 391 matches. The model gives 72.3% to someone winning. It ended 0-1. Only 2.5 points separate the leading outcome from the next, so the ordering here is weak. The higher rating expects 51.3% of the points, the lower 48.7%. Top of the distribution: CA Bizertin, 37.4%. Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Attack/defence pairs: 0.49/0.95 and 0.50/0.75. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -82 and -8. CA Bizertin is ahead on each half — 0.50 to 0.49 in attack, 0.75 to 0.95 in defence. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. Higher rating: the away side. A 9.7-point range covers every outcome here. Expected goals come out at 0.54 to 0.64.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
CA Bizertin edged past CS Hammam-Lif 1-0 on 30 August 2026. CA Bizertin opened the scoring inside the first 8 minutes for CA Bizertin to make it 1-0. (15') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: CA Bizertin are 74 points stronger than CS Hammam-Lif. CS Hammam-Lif's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2021/22 and Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27.