2 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 2-1. The latest was 2012, 1-0 in comp-apf-TUN. Today those sides rate 1766 and 1467, 299 apart, which resolves to 81.4% / 15.3% / 3.3%.
The match finished 1-0. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 402 and 88 matches. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +266 and -33. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neither component contradicts the other: Club Africain leads 1.02-0.70 forward and 0.28-0.95 back. Point estimate: 1-0. 1-0 is the single most probable result at 26.3%, clear of 2-0 on 18.9%. Top of the distribution: Club Africain, 81.4%. The four component numbers read 1.02, 0.28, 0.70, 0.95. The rating gap itself is 299 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The distribution runs from 81.4% down to 3.3%. The model gives 84.7% to someone winning. Club Africain holds a 66.1-point edge on the next outcome. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Expected goals come out at 1.44 to 0.26. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Club Africain's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 89.0%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Club Africain edged past ES Hammam-Sousse 1-0 on 29 August 2026. (10') was booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Club Africain 299 points stronger than ES Hammam-Sousse. On current ratings the model favours Club Africain at 81.4% in this pairing, and Club Africain won this one. Club Africain are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2025/26, Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.