Prior record: 6-2-4 across 12 since 2011. Most recent 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-TUN. Today those sides rate 1569 and 1478, 91 apart, which resolves to 59.7% / 22.6% / 17.7%.
The distribution peaks at 1-0, 22.8%, with 0-0 behind it at 21.9%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 239 and 248 rated matches respectively. Both components point the same way, toward ES Zarzis: 0.77 to 0.53 going forward, 0.66 to 0.91 going back. Distance between the ratings: 91 points, wide on this scale. Outcomes span 42.0 points. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Win-or-lose totals 77.4%; the draw takes the rest. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. By expected share of the points: 71.1% and 28.9%. A 37.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected goals come out at 1.04 to 0.48. Point estimate: 1-0. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +69 and -22. Most likely single result is ES Zarzis on 59.7%. The four component numbers read 0.77, 0.66, 0.53, 0.91. Result on the day: 1-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
ES Zarzis edged past Olympique Béja 1-0 on 23 August 2026. R. Hammami (12'), (56') and (71') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: ES Zarzis are 91 points stronger than Olympique Béja. On current ratings the model favours ES Zarzis at 59.7% in this pairing, and ES Zarzis won this one.