26 meetings sit in the record, first in 2011, aggregate 16-31. The latest was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-TUN. Against that, current ratings read 1618 and 1758, a 140-point margin, and the model splits the tie 26.6% / 25.3% / 48.1%.
CS Sfaxien leads the distribution by 21.5 points over Stade Tunisien. 48.1% goes to CS Sfaxien, the model's lean. Expected shares 39.4% against 60.6% on Elo. Most and least likely outcomes are 22.8 points apart. xG: 0.25 to 0.66. The higher rating belongs to the away side. 140 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +118 and +258. The single-scoreline output is 0-0. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 344 and 406 rated matches respectively. The distribution peaks at 0-0, 40.3%, with 0-1 behind it at 26.5%. The match finished 1-1. The four component numbers read 0.61, 0.45, 1.08, 0.28. A decisive result carries 74.7% against 25.3% for the draw. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. Neither component contradicts the other: CS Sfaxien leads 1.08-0.61 forward and 0.28-0.45 back.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Stade Tunisien and CS Sfaxien drew 1-1 on 22 August 2026. M. Trabelsi opened the scoring in the 36th minute for CS Sfaxien, set up by K. Mondeko Zatu, to make it 1-0. R. Riahi levelled it 73 minutes into the game for Stade Tunisien to make it 1-1. (58'), (86') and (89') were booked. CS Sfaxien are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form.