Prior record: 6-4-14 across 24 since 2014. Most recent 2026, 0-5 in comp-apf-TUN. History aside, the live ratings of 1559 and 1766 drive a 19.1% / 23.0% / 57.8% distribution.
The four component numbers read 0.53, 0.62, 1.02, 0.28. With 348 and 402 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. 0-0 is the single most probable result at 34.5%, clear of 0-1 on 29.2%. Played and finished 0-1. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The underlying goal expectation is 0.22 for ES Metlaoui, 0.85 for Club Africain. Club Africain leads the distribution by 34.8 points over the draw. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The two ratings differ by 207 points. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Top of the distribution: Club Africain, 57.8%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Club Africain scores at the higher rate (1.02 to 0.53) and concedes at the lower (0.28 to 0.62). Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +59 and +266. 76.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The distribution runs from 57.8% down to 19.1%. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Club Africain edged past ES Metlaoui 1-0 on 23 August 2026. S. Kadida opened the scoring late on, in the 87th minute for Club Africain to make it 1-0. Y. Soltani (31') and S. Khan (31') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Club Africain at 57.8% in this pairing, and Club Africain won this one. Club Africain are unbeaten in the latest 10 matches of their recorded form in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2025/26, Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27 and CAF Champions League 2026/27.