Prior record: 20-13-3 across 36 since 2012. Most recent 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-TUN. Today those sides rate 1809 and 1599, 210 apart, which resolves to 73.8% / 18.4% / 7.9%.
Outcomes span 65.9 points. 5 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The model's preferred outcome is ES Tunis at 73.8%. 1-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 24.8%. ES Tunis leads the distribution by 55.4 points over the draw. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Neither component contradicts the other: ES Tunis leads 0.92-0.70 forward and 0.41-0.78 back. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +309 and +99. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Both figures rest on decent samples, 474 and 432 matches. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.06 and 0.39. The match finished 3-2. 210 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 83.0% to 17.0%. The four component numbers read 0.92, 0.41, 0.70, 0.78. 81.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Its rounded call is 1-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
ES Tunis edged past ES Sahel 3-2 on 23 August 2026. M. Belhadj opened the scoring inside the first 15 minutes for ES Tunis to make it 1-0. A. Ben Dhiaf levelled it from the penalty spot 53 minutes into the game for ES Sahel to make it 1-1. O. Abid put ES Sahel in front 60 minutes into the game, set up by A. Ben Dhiaf, to make it 2-1. M. Haj Ali levelled it 75 minutes into the game for ES Tunis, set up by A. Jabri, to make it 2-2. ES Tunis regained the lead through M. Haj Ali late on, in the 82nd minute to make it 3-2. M. Bouslama (19'), (35'), (73') and (88') were booked. On current ratings the model favours ES Tunis at 73.8% in this pairing, and ES Tunis won this one.