The head-to-head counts 6 recorded meetings since 2023: 2 to CA Bizertin, 2 to AS Marsa, 2 drawn, 7-7 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-2 in comp-apf-TUN. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1492 and 1469 — 23 points — for a 49.9% / 24.9% / 25.2% split.
The distribution peaks at 0-0, 27.0%, with 1-0 behind it at 18.1%. CA Bizertin holds a 24.7-point edge on the next outcome. Attack/defence pairs: 0.50/0.75 and 0.63/0.91. A decisive result carries 75.1% against 24.9% for the draw. Played and finished 1-0. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Between best and worst outcome there is 25.0 points of daylight. CA Bizertin's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 62.4%. 23 points of rating separation. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 391 and 57 rated matches respectively. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -8 and -31. Neither side holds both halves — AS Marsa scores at 0.63, CA Bizertin concedes at 0.75. On expected goals the model has it 0.67 against 0.64. Higher rating: the home side.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
CA Bizertin edged past AS Marsa 1-0 on 23 August 2026. A. Ferchichi opened the scoring 69 minutes into the game for CA Bizertin to make it 1-0. (62'), (70'), (83') and (83') were booked.