On record: 8 meetings from 2015, 10-8 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2022, 0-0 in comp-apf-TUN. History aside, the live ratings of 1525 and 1418 drive a 61.9% / 22.0% / 16.1% distribution.
Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. A 107-point difference on the rating scale. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-0. The model gives 78.0% to someone winning. The leading outcome clears the second by 39.9 points. The split is one apiece: CS Hammam-Lif leads the attacking rate on 0.49, US Ben Guerdane the defensive on 0.55. The match finished 1-0. Goal expectation splits 0.68 to 0.36. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +25 and -82. Most likely single result is US Ben Guerdane on 61.9%. Raw profiles are 0.48 and 0.55 against 0.49 and 0.95. Between best and worst outcome there is 45.8 points of daylight. Higher rating: the home side. Expected shares 72.9% against 27.1% on Elo. 0-0 tops the scoreline distribution on 35.2%. Neither figure is thin: 296 and 228 matches respectively sit behind them.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
US Ben Guerdane edged past CS Hammam-Lif 1-0 on 20 September 2026. (32'), (35') and (37') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have US Ben Guerdane 107 points stronger than CS Hammam-Lif. On current ratings the model favours US Ben Guerdane at 61.9% in this pairing, and US Ben Guerdane won this one. US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form. CS Hammam-Lif's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2021/22 and Tunisia Ligue Pro 1 2026/27.