On record: 2 meetings from 2026, 2-3 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-2 in comp-apf-SPL. Against that, current ratings read 1541 and 1506, a 35-point margin, and the model splits the tie 51.7% / 24.5% / 23.8%.
A 35-point difference on the rating scale. Goal expectation splits 1.49 to 1.23. Both figures rest on decent samples, 34 and 311 matches. It ended 4-2. A 27.2-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Elo expected shares: 64.0% and 36.0%. On components there is almost nothing in it: 0.94 to 0.88 forward, 1.03 to 1.07 back. The three results cover 27.9 points. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +41 and +6. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. 51.7% goes to NEOM, the model's lean. Rounded, that is 1-1. The model gives 75.5% to someone winning. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.1%. The four component numbers read 0.94, 1.03, 0.88, 1.07. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
NEOM beat Al-Fateh 4-2 on 13 September 2026. Alexandre Lacazette opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 16th minute for NEOM to make it 1-0. Mourad Batna levelled it in the 41st minute for Al-Fateh to make it 1-1. NEOM regained the lead through Amadou Koné 51 minutes into the game, set up by Muhanad Al Saad, to make it 2-1. Wilfried Kanga levelled it 64 minutes into the game for Al-Fateh to make it 2-2. NEOM regained the lead through Alexandre Lacazette 70 minutes into the game, set up by Islam Ahmed Hawsawi, to make it 3-2. Valentín Vada added to the tally 79 minutes into the game for NEOM, set up by Mohannad Abu Taha, to make it 4-2. Christophe Galtier (51') was sent off. Khalil Al-Absi (6'), Amadou Koné (39'), Mihai Lixandru (42') and Christophe Galtier (50') were booked. On current ratings the model puts NEOM at around 1.49 goals in this pairing; they scored 4 here. NEOM won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.