On file: 16 previous meetings dating to 2017, 26-16 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-SPL. Currently 1543 against 1501 — a 52.9% / 24.2% / 22.9% split.
The xG line reads 1.92 to 1.56. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +43 and +1. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. In absolute terms: Al Shabab 1.13/1.32, Al-Fayha 0.88/1.15 on attack and defence. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.2%. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result. The match finished 0-0. The two ratings differ by 42 points. 52.9% goes to Al Shabab, the model's lean. The gap between first and second outcome is 28.7 points, Al Shabab ahead of the draw. Outcomes span 30.0 points. Someone wins 75.8% of the time by this model. The higher-rated side expects 64.9% of the points; the other side 35.1%. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The split is one apiece: Al Shabab leads the attacking rate on 1.13, Al-Fayha the defensive on 1.15. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 312 and 256 matches. Its rounded call is 1-1.
Source: our elo-poisson-v1 model, run across the complete result record. Not betting guidance.