Across 10 recorded meetings back to 2016 the split is 1-1-8 from Al Khaleej Saihat's side on wins, 4-22 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-5 in comp-apf-SPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1456 and 1892 — 436 points — for a 3.0% / 15.0% / 82.0% split.
Both components point the same way, toward Al-Nassr: 1.93 to 0.95 going forward, 0.67 to 1.51 going back. No scoreline stands out; 0-3 only leads on 7.7%. Rounded, that is 0-3. Someone wins 85.0% of the time by this model. Both figures rest on decent samples, 158 and 372 matches. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -44 and +392. xG: 0.95 to 3.92. 0 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The away side is rated higher. Spread across the three results is 79.0 points. Top of the distribution: Al-Nassr, 82.0%. The four component numbers read 0.95, 1.51, 1.93, 0.67. The two ratings differ by 436 points. Al-Nassr's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 89.4%. The match finished 1-1. Al-Nassr sits 67.0 points above the next most likely result. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Nassr drew 1-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam on 12 September 2026. Omar Mascarell opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Al Khaleej Saihat, set up by Angelo Fulgini, to make it 1-0. Abdullah Al-Hamdan levelled it 72 minutes into the game for Al-Nassr, set up by Iñigo Martínez, to make it 1-1. Nawaf Al-Sadi (9'), Mohammed Al-Khabrani (34'), Saad Fahad Al Nasser (43'), José Manuel Martins Teixeira Gomes (73'), Mansour Hamzi (77') and Samu Costa (85') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Nassr 436 points stronger than Al Khaleej Saihat.