On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 2024, 3-5 on goals. Last time: 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-SPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1473 and 1543 — 70 points — for a 35.3% / 27.8% / 36.9% split.
Expected goals come out at 1.42 to 1.94. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -27 and +43. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. The top two outcomes are within 1.6 points of each other, which is inside the range where the model is not really choosing. The three outcomes sit within 9.1 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The match finished 2-1. The ratings draw on 68 and 312 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The edge is split: Al Shabab scores at the higher rate (1.13 to 0.73), Al Kholood concedes at the lower (1.27 to 1.32). The four component numbers read 0.73, 1.27, 1.13, 1.32. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 9.6% — not a strong call. A 70-point difference on the rating scale. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 49.3% to 50.7%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Al Kholood edged past Al Shabab 2-1 on 9 September 2026. Roger Martínez opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Al Shabab, set up by Josh Brownhill, to make it 1-0. Iker Kortajarena Canellada levelled it in the 30th minute for Al Kholood, set up by Julien Domingues, to make it 1-1. Abdulrahman Al-Dosari put Al Kholood in front late on, in the 87th minute, set up by Mohammed Sawaan, to make it 2-1. Daniel Podence (22'), Mansour Camara (22'), Dhari Sayyar Al Anazi (28'), Seydouba Cisse (41') and Iker Kortajarena Canellada (73') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Al Shabab slightly the stronger side, by 70 rating points over Al Kholood, even though it was Al Kholood who won this one.