12 meetings sit in the record, first in 2016, aggregate 16-19. The latest was 2026, 3-2 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1820 against 1905, and the model turns that into 33.4% / 27.3% / 39.3%.
Top to bottom the spread is only 12.0 points. Higher rating: the away side. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Expected goals 1.60-1.71. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. 39.3% goes to Al-Ahli Jeddah, the model's lean. Result on the day: 3-2. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +320 and +405. Attack/defence pairs: 1.84/0.75 and 1.68/0.58. A 85-point difference on the rating scale. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.84 to 1.68 says Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0.58 to 0.75 says Al-Ahli Jeddah. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 180 and 345 rated matches respectively. The Elo curve splits the expected points 47.1% to 52.9% here. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.0%. First to second is a 5.9-point step, Al-Ahli Jeddah over Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Al-Qadisiyah FC edged past Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-2 on 8 September 2026. Tijjani Reijnders opened the scoring inside the first 14 minutes for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Musab Al-Juwayr, to make it 1-0. Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat added to the tally 46 minutes into the game for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Christopher Bonsu Baah, to make it 2-0. Tijjani Reijnders added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Al-Qadisiyah FC, set up by Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat, to make it 3-0. Ivan Toney got one back 63 minutes into the game for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by Francisco Trincão, to make it 1-3. Ivan Toney pulled one back late on, in the 82nd minute for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by Saleh Aboulshamat, to make it 2-3. Valentin Atangana Edoa (23'), Gastón Álvarez (29'), Nacho Fernández (54'), Musab Al-Juwayr (62') and Mohammed Hamad Al-Qahtani (86') were booked. Al-Qadisiyah FC are unbeaten in the latest 6 matches of their recorded form in Saudi Pro League 2025/26, Saudi Pro League 2026/27 and AFC Champions League 2026/27.