16 meetings sit in the record, first in 2017, aggregate 31-15. The latest was 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1688 against 1501, and the model turns that into 71.5% / 19.2% / 9.4%.
Ratings sit 187 apart. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +188 and +1. Expected goals sit at 2.14 against 1.26. First to second is a 52.3-point step, Al-Ittihad FC over the draw. It ended 2-1. The single-scoreline output is 2-1. The distribution runs from 71.5% down to 9.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Ittihad FC leads 1.25-0.88 forward and 1.06-1.15 back. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Most likely single result is Al-Ittihad FC on 71.5%. In absolute terms: Al-Ittihad FC 1.25/1.06, Al-Fayha 0.88/1.15 on attack and defence. The ratings draw on 340 and 256 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 81.0% to 19.0%. The model gives 80.9% to someone winning. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.6%. Scorelines above 8%: 2.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Ittihad FC edged past Al-Fayha 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 8 September 2026. George Ilenikhena opened the scoring in the 43rd minute for Al-Ittihad FC to make it 1-0. Jason Remeseiro levelled it 49 minutes into the game for Al-Fayha, set up by Ahmed Bamasud, to make it 1-1. Al-Ittihad FC regained the lead through Youssef En-Nesyri from the penalty spot 68 minutes into the game to make it 2-1. Jan-Carlo Simić (59') and Mohammed Al-Baqawi (66') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Al-Ittihad FC at 71.5% in this pairing, and Al-Ittihad FC won this one. Al-Ittihad FC are unbeaten in the latest 9 matches of their recorded form in Saudi Pro League 2025/26, AFC Champions League 2026/27 and Saudi Pro League 2026/27.