10 meetings sit in the record, first in 2018, aggregate 12-17. The latest was 2026, 2-0 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1498 against 1599, and the model turns that into 31.4% / 26.7% / 41.9%.
Al Taawon is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 0.86 in attack, 1.06 to 1.22 in defence. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 10.1%. Al Taawon carries the largest share, 41.9%. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. Result on the day: 1-0. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The distribution runs from 41.9% down to 26.7%. Expected goals come out at 1.36 to 1.86. A 10.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. A decisive result carries 73.3% against 26.7% for the draw. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -2 and +99. Neither figure is thin: 158 and 324 matches respectively sit behind them. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. The two ratings differ by 101 points. In absolute terms: Al-Hazm 0.86/1.22, Al Taawon 1.13/1.06 on attack and defence. The higher rating expects 55.2% of the points, the lower 44.8%.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Al-Hazm edged past Al Taawon 1-0 on 8 September 2026. Aboubacar Bah opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for Al-Hazm to make it 1-0. Saif Rajab (48'), Abdurahman Al-Dakheel (65') and Sultan Tanker (74') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Al Taawon clearly the stronger side, by 101 rating points over Al-Hazm, even though it was Al-Hazm who won this one.