On file: 20 previous meetings dating to 2016, 34-24 on goals. Last time: 2026, 3-2 in comp-apf-SPL. The live ratings are 1599 and 1506, giving 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%.
Behind them are 324 and 311 rated matches. The match finished 0-0. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.6%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Al Taawon is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 0.88 in attack, 1.06 to 1.07 in defence. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +99 and +6. A 42.5-point range top to bottom. Al Taawon leads the distribution by 37.5 points over the draw. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 1.06 against 0.88 and 1.07. The model gives 77.5% to someone winning. The underlying goal expectation is 1.80 for Al Taawon, 1.27 for Al-Fateh. The home side is rated higher. Top of the distribution: Al Taawon, 60.0%. As a single number the model says 1-1. Elo expected shares: 71.3% and 28.7%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 93 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.