Prior record: 1-6-13 across 20 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 3-5 in comp-apf-SPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1543 and 1919 — 376 points — for a 5.7% / 17.1% / 77.1% split.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC is ahead on each half — 1.73 to 1.13 in attack, 0.58 to 1.32 in defence. Versus the 1500 seed: +43 and +419. The higher rating expects 85.7% of the points, the lower 14.3%. Final score: 0-2. Neither figure is thin: 312 and 403 matches respectively sit behind them. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 0-3 on 8.5%. Expected goals sit at 0.97 against 3.08. Scorelines above 8%: 4. 82.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The away side is rated higher. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/1.32 and 1.73/0.58. Point estimate: 0-3. 376 points of rating separation. A 60.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Most and least likely outcomes are 71.4 points apart. Most likely single result is Al-Hilal Saudi FC on 77.1%. What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Shabab 2-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh on 4 September 2026. Mohammed Al-Thain (46') and Hassan Al-Tambakti (76') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 77.1% in this pairing, and Al-Hilal Saudi FC won this one.