The head-to-head counts 6 recorded meetings since 2023: 4 to Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 to Al Riyadh, 1 drawn, 12-3 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-SPL. Currently 1905 against 1455 — a 87.6% / 11.4% / 1.0% split.
Ratings update at full time; these are the post-match figures. The home side is rated higher. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al-Ahli Jeddah scores at the higher rate (1.68 to 0.80) and concedes at the lower (0.58 to 1.26). A decisive result carries 88.6% against 11.4% for the draw. As a single number the model says 3-0. 87.6% goes to Al-Ahli Jeddah, the model's lean. Elo expected shares: 95.1% and 4.9%. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +405 and -45. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 345 and 102 matches. Flat distribution — 3-0 tops it at just 11.9%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 450 points. Played and finished 5-0. Raw profiles are 1.68 and 0.58 against 0.80 and 1.26. The xG line reads 3.14 to 0.63. Scorelines above 8%: 3. The three results cover 86.6 points. Al-Ahli Jeddah leads the distribution by 76.2 points over the draw.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Al-Ahli Jeddah overwhelmed Al Riyadh 5-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 4 September 2026. Hussain Al Shurafa (47'), Mohammed Al-Khaibari (60') and Saad Yaslam Balobaid (77') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ahli Jeddah 450 points stronger than Al Riyadh. On current ratings the model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah at 87.6% in this pairing, and Al-Ahli Jeddah won this one.