Prior record: 4-1-5 across 10 since 2019. Most recent 2024, 0-3 in comp-apf-SPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1407 and 1594 — 187 points — for a 21.3% / 23.7% / 54.9% split.
Its rounded call is 1-2. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.35 and 2.78. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. A decisive result carries 76.2% against 23.7% for the draw. A 33.6-point range top to bottom. 187 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Behind them are 154 and 304 rated matches. The four component numbers read 0.82, 1.84, 1.12, 1.11. Al-Ettifaq leads the distribution by 31.2 points over the draw. The away side is rated higher. The higher rating expects 66.9% of the points, the lower 33.1%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -93 and +94. Most likely single result is Al-Ettifaq on 54.9%. 1 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The tie closed out 0-1. Flat distribution — 1-2 tops it at just 8.4%. Neither component contradicts the other: Al-Ettifaq leads 1.12-0.82 forward and 1.11-1.84 back.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Al-Ettifaq edged past Abha 1-0 on 4 September 2026. Donovan Leon (an own goal) opened the scoring 80 minutes into the game for Al-Ettifaq to make it 1-0. Firas Al-Ghamdi (29'), Ondrej Duda (30'), Mohammed Bandar Abdullah Al Zaid (53') and Abdulbaset Al-Hindi (79') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ettifaq 187 points stronger than Abha.