21 meetings sit in the record, first in 2016, aggregate 40-26. The latest was 2026, 0-0 in comp-apf-SPL. Today those sides rate 1919 and 1905, 14 apart, which resolves to 48.5% / 25.2% / 26.2%.
On components there is almost nothing in it: 1.73 to 1.68 forward, 0.58 to 0.58 back. Top of the distribution: Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 48.5%. The four component numbers read 1.73, 0.58, 1.68, 0.58. The home side is rated higher. The ratings draw on 403 and 345 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.8% leads, but only just. Played and finished 3-0. Ratings sit 14 apart. Scorelines above 8%: 3. 74.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Expected shares on the Elo curve: 61.2% and 38.8%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Between best and worst outcome there is 23.3 points of daylight. Expected goals sit at 1.50 against 1.32. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +419 and +405. The leading outcome clears the second by 22.3 points.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Hilal Saudi FC comfortably beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 at Kingdom Arena, Riyadh on 1 September 2026. S. Milinkovic-Savic opened the scoring inside the first 9 minutes for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by S. Mandash, to make it 1-0. C. Summerville added to the tally in the 23rd minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by R. Neves, to make it 2-0. O. Watkins added to the tally late on, in the 86th minute for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, set up by S. Mandash, to make it 3-0. M. Demiral (52') was sent off. 8 players were booked, among them Ibanez (11'), M. Meite (13'), C. Summerville (15'), S. Inzaghi (16'), R. Hamidou (48') and I. Toney (48').