Prior record: 0-0-10 across 10 since 2018. Most recent 2026, 0-4 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1498 against 1543, and the model turns that into 39.1% / 27.3% / 33.6%.
The higher-rated side expects 47.1% of the points; the other side 52.9%. A 45-point spread sits between the two figures. Attack/defence pairs: 0.86/1.22 and 1.13/1.32. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at -2 and +43. The split is one apiece: Al Shabab leads the attacking rate on 1.13, Al-Hazm the defensive on 1.22. Both figures rest on decent samples, 158 and 312 matches. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 9.1%. A 11.8-point range covers every outcome here. Top of the distribution: Al-Hazm, 39.1%. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Played and finished 1-1. Its point estimate is 1-1. Expected goals come out at 1.68 to 1.86. Win-or-lose totals 72.7%; the draw takes the rest. Al-Hazm leads the distribution by 5.5 points over Al Shabab. Scorelines above 8%: 2.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.