The head-to-head counts 21 recorded meetings since 2016: 13 to Al-Nassr, 6 to Al Taawon, 2 drawn, 35-19 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 1-0 in comp-apf-SPL. The present numbers are 1892 against 1599, and the model turns that into 81.0% / 15.5% / 3.5%.
Point estimate: 3-1. The match finished 2-1. The model's preferred outcome is Al-Nassr at 81.0%. Spread across the three results is 77.5 points. Expected shares 88.7% against 11.3% on Elo. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Expected goals 3.04-1.03. Al-Nassr holds both halves of the profile — 1.93 against 1.13 for scoring, 0.67 against 1.06 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Win-or-lose totals 84.5%; the draw takes the rest. In absolute terms: Al-Nassr 1.93/0.67, Al Taawon 1.13/1.06 on attack and defence. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +392 and +99. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 372 and 324 matches. Rating separation comes to 293 points. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 3-1 at 8.2%. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Al-Nassr sits 65.5 points above the next most likely result.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Al-Nassr edged past Al Taawon 2-1 on 28 August 2026. B. Al Hurayji opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for Al Taawon to make it 1-0. Samu Costa levelled it 50 minutes into the game for Al-Nassr, set up by S. Mane, to make it 1-1. C. Ronaldo put Al-Nassr in front 50 minutes into the game, set up by M. Simakan, to make it 2-1. S. Al Najdi (20') and M. Petkov (75') were booked. On current ratings the model favours Al-Nassr at 81% in this pairing, and Al-Nassr won this one.