Prior record: 2-4-2 across 8 since 2019. Most recent 2024, 3-2 in comp-apf-SPL. Against that, current ratings read 1501 and 1407, a 94-point margin, and the model splits the tie 60.1% / 22.5% / 17.4%.
Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The two ratings differ by 94 points. The model gives 77.5% to someone winning. Expected shares 71.4% against 28.6% on Elo. Goal expectation splits 2.41 to 1.27. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +1 and -93. Neither figure is thin: 256 and 154 matches respectively sit behind them. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Result on the day: 3-2. The leading outcome clears the second by 37.6 points. Al-Fayha holds both halves of the profile — 0.88 against 0.82 for scoring, 1.15 against 1.84 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Only one scoreline clear 8% individually. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.3%. The three results cover 42.7 points. Most likely single result is Al-Fayha on 60.1%. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 1.15 against 0.82 and 1.84.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Al-Fayha edged past Abha 3-2 on 28 August 2026. K. Al Shamrani (38'), J. Gaari (50') and A. Diallo (68') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al-Fayha are 94 points stronger than Abha. 2 goals came after the 80th minute. On current ratings the model favours Al-Fayha at 60.1% in this pairing, and Al-Fayha won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 1.93 to 0.43.