Across 2 recorded meetings back to 2025 the split is 0-0-2 from Al Riyadh's side on wins, 2-4 on goals. The last was 2026, 0-1 in comp-apf-SPL. Today those sides rate 1455 and 1541, 86 apart, which resolves to 33.3% / 27.2% / 39.5%.
A decisive result carries 72.8% against 27.2% for the draw. In absolute terms: Al Riyadh 0.80/1.26, NEOM 0.94/1.03 on attack and defence. Both components point the same way, toward NEOM: 0.94 to 0.80 going forward, 1.03 to 1.26 going back. A 86-point spread sits between the two figures. The away side is rated higher. The higher rating expects 53.0% of the points, the lower 47.0%. Behind them are 102 and 34 rated matches. 3 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -45 and +41. The three results cover 12.3 points. The gap between first and second outcome is 6.2 points, NEOM ahead of Al Riyadh. The model's preferred outcome is NEOM at 39.5%. Expected goals sit at 1.22 against 1.59. The tie closed out 1-0. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.7% — not a strong call. As a single number the model says 1-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Al Riyadh edged past NEOM 1-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh on 28 August 2026. T. Okou opened the scoring 61 minutes into the game for Al Riyadh, set up by H. Al Ali, to make it 1-0. V. Lekhal (37'), H. Camara (46'), F. Al Jayzani (49') and B. Mensah (54') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make NEOM slightly the stronger side, by 86 rating points over Al Riyadh, even though it was Al Riyadh who won this one. Al Riyadh won this pairing for the first time in our records, after 2 meetings without a win.