Prior record: 4-2-0 across 6 since 2023. Most recent 2026, 1-1 in comp-apf-SPL. Today those sides rate 1543 and 1455, 88 apart, which resolves to 59.5% / 22.6% / 17.9%.
2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The rating gap itself is 88 points, which is wide by the model's standards. The tie closed out 3-3. Attack/defence pairs: 1.13/1.32 and 0.80/1.26. Al Shabab carries the largest share, 59.5%. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 312 and 102 rated matches respectively. Expected goals 2.10-1.42. By expected share of the points: 70.7% and 29.3%. Reduced to one result that is 2-1. Higher rating: the home side. Al Shabab sits 36.9 points above the next most likely result. Flat distribution — 2-1 tops it at just 9.3%. The three results cover 41.6 points. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.13 to 0.80 says Al Shabab, 1.26 to 1.32 says Al Riyadh. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +43 and -45. A decisive result carries 77.4% against 22.6% for the draw. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al Shabab and Al Riyadh drew 3-3 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh on 25 August 2026. Trezeguet opened the scoring in the 32nd minute for Al Riyadh, set up by L. Antunes, to make it 1-0. J. Brownhill levelled it in the 36th minute for Al Shabab to make it 1-1. Al Riyadh regained the lead through L. Antunes in the 41st minute, set up by R. Abascal, to make it 2-1. Y. Carrasco levelled it 46 minutes into the game for Al Shabab, set up by Y. Adli, to make it 2-2. Al Riyadh regained the lead through T. Okou 57 minutes into the game, set up by Trezeguet, to make it 3-2. Y. Carrasco levelled it late on, in the 81st minute for Al Shabab to make it 3-3. K. Keita (61') was sent off. S. Al Essa (44') and V. Lekhal (51') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Al Shabab are 88 points stronger than Al Riyadh. Expected goals put the gap at 2.8 to 1.18.