On record: 16 meetings from 2017, 26-14 on aggregate, 7 drawn. Their most recent was 2026, 2-3 in comp-apf-SPL. Today those sides rate 1599 and 1501, 98 apart, which resolves to 60.8% / 22.3% / 16.9%.
The two ratings differ by 98 points. Result on the day: 0-0. Expected shares 71.9% against 28.1% on Elo. 2 scorelines clear 8% individually. The model's preferred outcome is Al Taawon at 60.8%. Most and least likely outcomes are 43.9 points apart. Its rounded call is 1-1. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 1.06 against 0.88 and 1.15. Versus the 1500 seed: +99 and +1. The home side is rated higher. On expected goals the model has it 1.93 against 1.26. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.0% — not a strong call. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Behind them are 324 and 256 rated matches. There is no trade-off to weigh: Al Taawon scores at the higher rate (1.13 to 0.88) and concedes at the lower (1.06 to 1.15). Al Taawon leads the distribution by 38.5 points over the draw. Someone wins 77.7% of the time by this model.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.