The head-to-head counts 4 recorded meetings since 2023: 2 to Abha, 2 to Al Khaleej Saihat, 0 drawn, 6-7 on aggregate. Most recently 2024, 2-1 in comp-apf-SPL. Today those sides rate 1407 and 1456, 49 apart, which resolves to 38.6% / 27.4% / 33.9%.
A decisive result carries 72.5% against 27.4% for the draw. Neither figure is thin: 154 and 158 matches respectively sit behind them. In absolute terms: Abha 0.82/1.84, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.95/1.51 on attack and defence. Al Khaleej Saihat's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 47.7%. The two ratings differ by 49 points. Scorelines above 8%: 0. Expected goals come out at 1.83 to 2.37. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-2 highest at 7.7%. The three outcomes sit within 11.2 points of each other — an unusually flat distribution. The gap between first and second outcome is 4.7 points, Abha ahead of Al Khaleej Saihat. Higher rating: the away side. Versus the 1500 seed: -93 and -44. Most likely single result is Abha on 38.6%. The match finished 1-1. Neither component contradicts the other: Al Khaleej Saihat leads 0.95-0.82 forward and 1.51-1.84 back.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Abha and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 on 25 August 2026. J. King opened the scoring in the 17th minute for Al Khaleej Saihat to make it 1-0. K. Al Qahtani levelled it in the 24th minute for Abha, set up by M. Al Dawsari, to make it 1-1. M. Batshuayi (51'), P. Rebocho (61') and M. Malayekah (91') were booked.