Prior record: 4-2-2 across 8 since 2020. Most recent 2024, 5-1 in comp-apf-SPL. The live ratings are 1905 and 1407, giving 88.7% / 10.3% / 1.0%.
Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 4-0. A 498-point spread sits between the two figures. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +405 and -93. Behind them are 345 and 154 rated matches. The four component numbers read 1.68, 0.58, 0.82, 1.84. The scoreline spread is even — 4-0 on 9.8% leads, but only just. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. A decisive result carries 89.7% against 10.3% for the draw. Expected goals sit at 4.60 against 0.65. Al-Ahli Jeddah leads the distribution by 78.4 points over the draw. Both components point the same way, toward Al-Ahli Jeddah: 1.68 to 0.82 going forward, 0.58 to 1.84 going back. Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. By expected share of the points: 96.2% and 3.8%. Spread across the three results is 87.7 points. The match finished 4-0. Most likely single result is Al-Ahli Jeddah on 88.7%. Scorelines above 8%: 3.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Al-Ahli Jeddah overwhelmed Abha 4-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah on 22 August 2026. I. Toney opened the scoring inside the first 5 minutes for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by E. Spertsyan, to make it 1-0. I. Toney added to the tally from the penalty spot inside the first 13 minutes for Al-Ahli Jeddah to make it 2-0. Trincao added to the tally 51 minutes into the game for Al-Ahli Jeddah to make it 3-0. I. Toney added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Al-Ahli Jeddah, set up by Trincao, to make it 4-0. E. Spertsyan (41'), Z. Al Johani (81') and N. Fekir (86') were booked. The rating gap is a wide one: our current Elo ratings have Al-Ahli Jeddah 498 points stronger than Abha. On current ratings the model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah at 88.7% in this pairing, and Al-Ahli Jeddah won this one. Expected goals put the gap at 2.31 to 0.99.