The head-to-head counts 4 recorded meetings since 2024: 1 to Al Kholood, 2 to Al Taawon, 1 drawn, 3-6 on aggregate. Most recently 2026, 2-1 in comp-apf-SPL. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1473 and 1599 — 126 points — for a 28.3% / 25.8% / 45.8% split.
The higher rating expects 58.7% of the points, the lower 41.3%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.73/1.27 and 1.13/1.06. Its rounded call is 1-1. Al Taawon holds a 17.5-point edge on the next outcome. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.15 and 1.94. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Al Taawon holds both halves of the profile — 1.13 against 0.73 for scoring, 1.06 against 1.27 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The tie closed out 3-2. 45.8% goes to Al Taawon, the model's lean. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 10.1%. The three results cover 20.0 points. Behind them are 68 and 324 rated matches. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: -27 and +99. The rating gap itself is 126 points, which is wide by the model's standards.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Al Kholood edged past Al Taawon 3-2 on 22 August 2026. S. Pinas (74') and C. da Costa (76') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Al Taawon clearly the stronger side, by 126 rating points over Al Kholood, even though it was Al Kholood who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Al Kholood only a 28.3% chance in this pairing, less than one in three.