Prior record: 8-7-5 across 20 since 2016. Most recent 2026, 3-4 in comp-apf-SPL. History aside, the live ratings of 1506 and 1594 drive a 33.2% / 27.2% / 39.6% distribution.
Most and least likely outcomes are 12.4 points apart. The match finished 0-1. Its rounded call is 1-1. Neither figure is thin: 311 and 304 matches respectively sit behind them. Most likely single result is Al-Ettifaq on 39.6%. The higher rating expects 53.3% of the points, the lower 46.7%. 72.8% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 1.07 against 1.12 and 1.11. Expected goals sit at 1.46 against 1.62. 2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Al-Ettifaq holds a 6.4-point edge on the next outcome. The away side is rated higher. One edge each: scoring to Al-Ettifaq (1.12 v 0.88), conceding to Al-Fateh (1.07 v 1.11). Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 10.9%. On the rating scale the distance between them is wide, at 88 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read +6 and +94.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Al-Ettifaq edged past Al-Fateh 1-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf on 22 August 2026. J. Hendry opened the scoring 78 minutes into the game for Al-Ettifaq, set up by A. Medran, to make it 1-0.