A draw is doing more work in this distribution than usual: 26.1%, with the two wins on 44.7% and 29.2%.
The ratings draw on 179 and 34 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. On expected goals the model has it 0.95 against 1.00. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 14.2% leads, but only just. The tie closed out 0-2. Someone wins 73.9% of the time by this model. Rounded, that is 0-1. The away side is rated higher. A 18.6-point range top to bottom. Neither side holds both halves — NEOM scores at 0.94, Al-Faisaly FC concedes at 0.79. Al-Faisaly FC holds a 15.5-point edge on the next outcome. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run +30 and +41. 11 points of rating separation. In absolute terms: Al-Faisaly FC 0.62/0.79, NEOM 0.94/1.03 on attack and defence. Al-Faisaly FC carries the largest share, 44.7%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Expected shares 57.7% against 42.3% on Elo.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
NEOM beat Al-Faisaly FC 2-0 on 21 August 2026. A. Lacazette opened the scoring 51 minutes into the game for NEOM, set up by K. Al Absi, to make it 1-0. A. Lacazette added to the tally 60 minutes into the game for NEOM, set up by H. Camara, to make it 2-0. T. Bongonda (37') and C. Bassogog (56') were booked. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives NEOM only a 29.2% chance in this pairing, less than one in three. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.26 to 0.15.